🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.